Walt Disney World just wrapped up the week that we forecast would have the highest crowd levels in Winter 2026 due to two holidays coinciding, which doesn’t always happen. Here’s how our prediction performed, how high wait times actually were, plus what to expect going forward. Spoiler alert: it was bad. Worse than all other weeks of the last 52, minus one.
In case you’re new to winter crowds, the bad news is that they’re bad. Or at least, worse than they used to be. There’s this “sticky” perception of winter being the off-season, which is probably in equal parts due to old school Walt Disney World fans remembering the good ole days, and casual tourists to Florida intuitively thinking the Sunshine State and its beaches will be less busy when temperatures are in the 40s to 60s. (The overnight low was just 36℉.)
That perception might be accurate about Florida as a whole, but not Walt Disney World. This is precisely what prompted us to write Winter (Still) Is Not Off-Season at Walt Disney World. That was nothing new; it’s a trend we first observed way back in 2017. It’s only been exacerbated post-COVID, as more people live in Central Florida, work remotely, or otherwise travel during the first few months of the year.
This dynamic is already playing out again over the first two months of 2026, with even the weeks outside of the “worst” one being varying degrees of busy.
Speaking of those ‘varying degrees,’ we predicted that ‘worst week’ of winter at Walt Disney World would be approximately February 13-22, 2026. This is hardly news–that window is always bad.
The reasons for this were documented in our list of the 10 Best & Worst Weeks to Visit Walt Disney World in 2026 & 2027. Many school districts offer a long weekend or full week off, for what’s widely known as Mid-Winter Break (or “Ski Week”), anchored to Presidents’ Day. Several major districts in the Northeast and Midwest also offer this entire week off. Plenty of others have a long weekend break just for the Presidents’ Day holiday.
That happens every year, but the unique wrinkle this year, was Mardi Gras on February 17, 2026.
That does not happen every year; to the contrary, it last occurred in 2023 and resulted in a major spike in crowds. Many major school districts in Louisiana have the week around Mardi Gras off, as do a handful of other school districts in coastal counties in Mississippi and Alabama.
The bottom line is that this is almost always the worst week in the two months prior to spring break season starting, and it is often busier than the early spring breaks in March when Central Florida school districts are on recess. Although it’s not usually worse than Easter, we previously wrote that there’s an outside chance of that in 2026 due to the one-two punch of Presidents’ Day and Mardi Gras.
Last year, we predicted that the worst week of winter would be February 14-23, 2025. In reviewing the wait times data, the worst dates were actually February 14-22, 2025. That stretch averaged 8/10 crowd levels and 41 minute wait times. (February 23rd, which was in our predicted range, ended up at 34 minutes and 5/10 crowds.)
By contrast, February 13th was a 2/10 crowd level with 29 minute averages and February 24th was a 1/10 crowd level with 25 minute averages. Dates before and after those ‘worst week’ dates were similar.
Back in 2024, heavy crowds started on February 15 and continued until February 26. Peak crowd levels were February 16-17 and February 19-21, all of which had 9/10 or 10/10 crowd levels. For those keeping score at home, our predictions performed similarly in 2024, just as they did in 2023.
With that background set, here’s a look at 2026 wait time stats, courtesy of thrill-data.com:
As you can see from the above daily data, the last week-plus saw a sharp spike in crowds at Walt Disney World.
The worst dates within that window were February 13-21, 2026. The peak within that was February 15th, although February 14-17 saw daily 9/10 crowd levels.
It’s not surprising that Sunday, February 22nd saw a drop-off and ended up being only 4/10 crowds. This is something we consistently see at the tail end of peak weeks as tourists head home. The trend has become increasingly true on Saturdays, too. We nevertheless err on the side of caution and continue including those comparatively less busy weekends in most of our worst weeks, with several exceptions (post-Thanksgiving being the biggest).
This stretch was busier than last year, but not as bad as 2023 or 2024. That’s the general trend, though, and not really an apples to apples comparison since the switch from Genie+ to Lightning Lane Multi-Pass as well as the DAS crackdown have dramatically reduced standby line waits (to a far greater degree than Disney has reported attendance changes).
To that point, it’s worth reiterating that the above crowd levels are as measured by wait times data. There is no great way to measure attendance, and to the extent we get data for that, it’s annual.
In our extensive experience, ‘feels like’ crowds or congestion are always worse during winter than spring through early fall. You can pretty safely expect disproportionate ‘feels like’ crowds from November through February; there are a variety of reasons for this, but weather is the cleanest explanation.
The reason congestion isn’t as bad in months that are hotter is because people prioritize air-conditioning, so they move more quickly from line to line. Crowds are also worse in the (fewer) nighttime hours, especially Extended Evening Hours as a disproportionate number of guests seek out those as a reprieve from the weather.
During months when the weather is nicer, the opposite is true. You’ll see more guests wandering around, enjoying the atmosphere of the parks. These months also draw out more locals, who are (statistically) less inclined to race from ride to ride, exacerbating wait times. There are other contributing factors, but the big difference boils down to weather.
Zoom out and look at weekly wait time data, and we see something somewhat surprising: last week wasn’t just the worst week of winter, it was tied for the second-worst week of the last year!
The only week that was busier was the week of New Year’s Eve, which was significantly worse. Last week was tied with Easter, beating last Christmas and Central Florida’s Spring Break. It was worse than Fall Break, Thanksgiving, and every single week of summer.
That’s pretty noteworthy for a holiday that isn’t even on the radar of a lot of tourists. We call a lot of attention to Presidents’ Day, like Veterans Day, because the “unexpected” crowds always catch people by surprise–and we inevitably hear about it from readers, despite our many warnings.
We predicted that last week would definitely be one of the top 10 worst weeks, and could be one of the top 5 worst weeks, so this isn’t out of line with expectations. However, I wouldn’t have put it at #2.
My expectation is that it’ll still fall to #3 or #4 once we’re looking at the entirety of 2026 as opposed to the (rolling) last 365 days. At minimum, Easter should be worse this year by virtue of occurring earlier. I’m also skeptical that Christmas 2026 will be as slow (relatively speaking) as last year. But Thanksgiving has been trending downward for a while, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the first two weeks of Spring Break are slower.
Regardless, this should underscore just how bad last week was (and again, with worse ‘feels like’ crowds than window during a warmer time of year) and why you should avoid these dates in 2027 or 2028. The good news is that the collision of Presidents’ Day and Mardi Gras doesn’t repeat itself until 2032. Just in time for colossal crowds to descend upon Villains Land!
Also interesting is that, as of right now, February 2026 is the busiest month of the last 12. That’s perhaps the bigger story here, as we knew the week of Mid-Winter Break would be bad.
However, we did not expect the two weeks before it to be as busy as they were; instead of a weeklong reprieve from the crowds as is normally the case, there were only a few 2-3 day stretches of 2/10 to 4/10 crowd levels.
Even as winter has gotten worse, it’s still been the case that there were pockets of low to moderate crowds in the mix. With each year, these seem to shrink and become less predictable. They’re still among our favorite weeks to visit thanks to weather and the EPCOT Festival of the Arts, but it’s getting tougher to recommend these 5/10 to 7/10 dates–with even worse ‘feels like’ crowds from an objective perspective. Beyond increased travel flexibility and a higher Central Florida population, other drivers of these added crowds are youth sporting events, conventions, and South American tour groups.
Ultimately, all of this is is why Mid-Winter Break ranks #4 on our list of the Least-Bad Weeks to Visit Walt Disney World for Families on School Schedules. As we are now less than a year away from our own travel being constrained by school schedules, I’m becoming increasingly cognizant of the practical realities of when we’ll be able to take trips.
If we had only one Walt Disney World vacation per year and could choose it in a vacuum, we wouldn’t pick Mid-Winter Break. (That’s why it ranks #4!) But there are also 6 weeks that are worse than that, and that’s without every single week of summer included on the list. However, we also couldn’t choose it in a vacuum–and a couple of our top choices coincide with family holidays, so those are probably out. Suddenly, Mid-Winter Break, even with its 7/10 to 9/10 crowds, becomes a lot more attractive.
To each their own, but I would happily take higher ‘feels like’ crowds/congestion over higher ‘feels like’ temperatures. That’s precisely why more weeks from November through March make our list of the best time to visit. In our view, way too much emphasis is placed on wait times, as if they’re the end-all, be-all of Walt Disney World trip timing. At least for us, they aren’t the top 2 or 3 considerations. You can beat high crowds; you cannot escape oppressive heat and humidity.
If you’re looking for the best of both worlds, the good news is that there should be a reprieve from the crowds for the next couple of weeks. The parks won’t be anything close to ghost towns (see all of the above commentary about winter, as a whole, being busier than it used to be), but these next two weeks won’t be as bad as last week or even the median week of winter.
Thus far, this week has seen 4/10 to 6/10 crowd levels at Walt Disney World. It used to be one of our top weeks of the year, but that changed within the last couple of years as crowds started to creep up. With Mardi Gras moving forward, that opens up the first week of March, which we generally like more. Again, it won’t be dead, and there are still major pitfalls to avoid with the start the 2026 EPCOT Flower & Garden Festival, along with ESPN Wide World of Sports events, but it should be possible to hit 3/10 to 4/10 days by choosing the best days of the week to visit each park.
To this point, Mardi Gras coinciding with Presidents’ Day has one obvious upside, which is that it’s not occurring a different week. By consolidating crowds that are normally spread out, the dates that follow in late February and early March 2026 should be better than last year. That won’t last too long, as Central Florida’s Spring Break is right around the corner next month, but it’s actually a similar story with Spring Break. Easter moving forward by 15 days in 2026 means shoulder season should arrive sooner!
Weather, on the other hand, is a bit trickier. Central Florida has had multiple unseasonably cold stretches this year, to the point that it might be off-putting to tourists who booked trips to the so-called Sunshine State. On the plus side, this should reduce the numbers of locals visiting by a non-negligible amount, yielding an objective improvement in crowd levels.
From a subject perspective, most tourists will probably prefer mild weather. But as someone who has extensive experience with triple-digit heat in Central Florida during summer and fall, I will happily take “extreme” cold (by Florida’s standards) to extreme heat. Just like beating crowds vs. beating heat, you can always overcome cold weather by adding layers…there are only so many you can remove before you’re escorted out of the park.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Did you visit Walt Disney World during this worst week of winter in 2026? What did you think of the crowds? Have you done Mid-Winter Break (or whatever you want to call it) in the past? If you’ve visited previously when Presidents’ Day and Mardi Gras coincided, did you notice colossal crowds? Do you agree or disagree with our predictions? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!